I was reading an article on AdAge today which indicates broadcast TV could lose $600mm next year due to the habits of DVR users. The numbers were put together by the giant, Nielsen Media Research company. The exact formula for how they came to this conclusion was not published but it got me thinking... how much is really lost?

I have two DVRs (I must be rich!) and those two serve three different purposes. The inside one, hooked to the TV used by the kids and Kerri (for the most part) has two profiles: Recorded kid shows and recorded "Kerri" shows. The main use inside is the kid shows, consisting of Disney and Nick flicks that are suitable for my kids. When nothing is on for them I'll replay Handy Manny or Little Einsteins or some such thing. We never skip through the commercials. Kerri has two shows that she records because they tend to run at a time when the kids are in the process of being put to bed. Kerri will definitely skip through her commercials. But then again, Kerri almost never gets to watch TV so her impact is tiny. The kids add much more value to the advertisers than Kerri removes.

The outside TV, the one in The Garage, never experiences deliberate commercial skipping. I really have it so I can rewind a football play or that sort of thing. It is possible that a commercial could be played during that time but usually not. I may have recorded a show or two outside but I've never actually watched one (who has the time?!?) so I've never purposely skipped a commercial.

If I add all of this up, the advertisers for the shows we watch are way ahead of the game. They pay for a time slot but we see them time and time again. I wonder if that is factored in to the notion of a $600mm loss for advertisers? I couldn't say without seeing their algorithm but if others have a similar usage pattern to me, it would seem difficult to believe.